By USPatriotNews.com Editorial Team
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The race to fill South Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat is officially anyone’s game — and President Trump is paying close attention. On Thursday evening, Trump retruthed a breaking poll from Robert Cahaly and the Trafalgar Group, one of the most respected and accurate polling firms in the country, showing a wide-open Republican primary field with no candidate anywhere close to a majority. If you thought this race was settled, think again.
What the Numbers Actually Show
In This Article
The Trafalgar Group’s South Carolina GOP 2026 Special Election for U.S. Senate tracking poll — conducted July 28–30 with 989 respondents and a margin of error of 2.9 points — paints a picture of a deeply unsettled Republican electorate. Here’s how the field currently stacks up:
- Darline Graham — 27.0%
- Russell Fry — 17.4%
- Ralph Norman — 17.4%
- Mark Sanford — 15.1%
- Mark Lynch — 8.1%
- Samuel Sam Shepherd — 1.1%
- Duke Buckner — 0.9%
- Mark McBride — 0.4%
- Clark Nielson — 0.3%
- Undecided — 12.4%
Darline Graham leads the pack at 27%, but let’s be clear: that is not a commanding position. In a race this crowded, with 12.4% of voters still undecided and two candidates — Fry and Norman — tied at 17.4% and breathing down her neck, this contest is far from over. South Carolina Republicans will likely face a runoff scenario, and in runoffs, anything can happen.
The fact that President Trump chose to amplify this poll on Truth Social signals something important: he’s watching this race closely. When the 45th and 47th President of the United States puts his eyes on a Senate primary, smart candidates and smart voters take notice. Trump’s endorsement in Republican primaries has proven time and again to be the single most decisive factor in determining outcomes, from Pennsylvania to Georgia to right here in the Palmetto State.
Why This Race Matters for America First
South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat doesn’t become vacant every day. This special election represents a critical opportunity to send another America First conservative to Washington — or, alternatively, a cautionary tale about what happens when the GOP field gets too crowded and the wrong candidate slips through. The Senate math matters enormously as President Trump continues pushing his bold legislative agenda through Congress, from border security to tax cuts to reining in a weaponized federal bureaucracy.
The presence of Mark Sanford in this field at 15.1% is itself a story worth watching. Sanford, the former governor and congressman whose political career has been defined more by personal scandal and Trump opposition than any coherent conservative vision, polling in double digits is a reminder that name recognition alone can be dangerous in a crowded primary. South Carolina Republicans would do well to scrutinize records, not just name recognition.
Russell Fry, the current U.S. Congressman who has been a reliable conservative voice and Trump ally in the House, is tied with Ralph Norman — a veteran legislator and member of the House Freedom Caucus — at 17.4%. Both men represent the kind of America First backbone that the Senate desperately needs. Norman, in particular, has spent years fighting the Washington establishment from inside the halls of Congress and has never wavered on the core issues that matter to Republican voters: fiscal sanity, border security, and constitutional governance.
The Trafalgar Factor — This Poll Is the Real Deal
It’s worth emphasizing who conducted this poll, because not all polling is created equal. The Trafalgar Group and Robert Cahaly earned their reputation the hard way — by being right when everyone else was wrong. In 2016, Trafalgar was one of the only firms to correctly call Michigan and Pennsylvania for Trump.
In 2020, they again identified red state surges that the legacy media’s preferred pollsters completely missed. In a landscape littered with agenda-driven polling designed to shape narratives rather than measure reality, Trafalgar stands apart.
When Trafalgar releases a tracking poll, it’s not spin. It’s a serious data point. And the data point here is unmistakable: South Carolina Republicans have not made up their minds, and the eventual nominee will have to earn this — not coast to it.
That 12.4% undecided bloc is the ballgame. Nearly one in eight Republican primary voters is still up for grabs. In a race this tight between multiple credible candidates, whoever captures those undecided voters — and whoever earns the support of the most powerful political force in the Republican Party — will likely be the next U.S. Senator from South Carolina.
Bottom Line
President Trump retruthing this Trafalgar poll isn’t an accident. He’s engaged, he’s watching, and South Carolina Republicans are lucky to have a president who cares this deeply about putting the right people in the right seats to advance the America First agenda. Darline Graham leads for now, but with Fry and Norman both at 17.4%, Sanford lurking at 15%, and over 12% of voters still undecided, this race will be decided in the final stretch — and quite possibly in a runoff.
Stay locked in to USPatriotNews.com/politics for continuing coverage of this race and every other contest that will determine the future of the Senate and the success of President Trump’s second-term agenda. The Palmetto State is about to get very interesting.
